So to try to answer the question of what will happen to the Nebraska defense this season without our two stalwart defensive ends, I looked back at history. Before it happened to Nebraska, Texas, Florida and Georgia last year, a team has lost its starting two defensive ends to the NFL Draft in the same year only 13 times since the 2002 draft.
To try to quantify the impact of the loss of both defensive ends in the same year, I looked at the number of tackles, tackles for loss (TFL), and sacks for each of the defensive ends in their final collegiate year before being drafted. I then researched the replacement defensive ends for the next year and how many tackles, TFL’s and sacks those players accumulated in the next year.
In addition to looking at the individual numbers of those who were drafted and their replacements, I looked at the team defensive rankings. Once I accumulated all of these numbers, I used my limited mathematical prowess to try to figure out the trends.
The following chart shows the comparison between the productions of the DE’s chosen together in the NFL Draft and their replacements.
The table above provides a quick snapshot of the loss of production that accompanies the departure of two NFL-quality defensive ends from a college football team. Multiplying the difference between the production of the NFL DE’s and their replacements by two (there are almost always two DE’s on the field, right?) the production difference is more stark. Over the course of a season, the average accumulated loss of production for the DE’s is 18 tackles, 10 TFL’s and 6 sacks.
Beyond the directly obvious loss of production from the DE position, there is an additional effect on the rest of the defense. As I understand it, solid defensive ends who can put consistent pressure on the quarterback and can hold up to the run are invaluable because they allow the defensive coordinator to call fewer blitzes. With fewer blitzes but the same amount of pressure being applied as if blitzes were being called, the linebackers, safeties and the occasional cornerback who could have been sent on blitzes are able to focus their attention on run support and pass defense. With all of their attention focused on run support and pass defense, the defense is better as a whole. And all of this comes from the presence of two good DE’s.
With all of that being said, I decided to put the above theory to the test by looking at the numbers. With obvious concerns about the small sample size, I still believe that the theoretical stuff about the effect of quality DE’s has been shown to be correct based on the numbers.
For each of the 13 teams that lost their two DE's to the NFL draft since 2002, the following chart shows the average ranking of those teams' defense in the following four categories: rush defense, pass defense, total defense and scoring defense. The second column shows the average rankings of those teams’ defensive units for the next season.
Somewhat surprisingly, the teams with multiple NFL DE’s weren’t ranked as highly in the team defensive stats as might be expected. These higher numbers can be attributed in part to the Purdue team of 2005 that had both of their DE’s drafted and still ranked 50th, 111th, 100th and 75th respectively in the categories listed in the chart. Purdue wasn’t the only team though to rank poorly in the overall defensive categories despite having two NFL draft picks at defensive end. The 2001 BYU team had rankings of 95th, 88th, 102nd, and 85th and the 2005 Syracuse team had rankings of 97, 21, 57 and 67. Take those three teams out of the equation and the average ranking of the defenses with two NFL DE’s drops (or rises…however you want to look at it) to a more expected level.
As most would predict, in the year following the departure of the defensive ends, the average ranking in the four main defensive categories dropped significantly. Though I am not sure that the entire drop can be attributed to the loss of the defensive ends, they have to be a major component.
So what does all of this mean for Nebraska this year? I actually don’t believe that the impact will be as large as some fans, prognosticators and these numbers have predicted. I believe that Barry Turner, who had six sacks as a freshman in 2005 and who has added more bulk to help defend the run and withstand the rigors of full time duty, will have a season where he records at least 8 sacks. Those 8 sacks would represent an improvement over both of Carriker’s 7 sacks and Moore’s 6 sacks from last year and would alleviate some of the production requirements for the other starting defensive end.
Another reason why I don’t think the loss of Carriker and Moore will be drastic is because of the multiple front scheme that we appear to be shifting towards. In the multiple front scheme, less of a premium is placed on having two DE’s who can both rush the passer and defend the run. The defensive formation can be adjusted for the down and distance as well as the opposing team’s style of offense and the time and situation of the game. Part of these adjustments can include having speedy linebackers convert to pass rushing DE’s in certain passing situations. Having speedy players like Octavien (think a lesser version of the Demorrio Williams of 2003) rushing off of the corner will help to hide some of the loss of pressure that most expect based on the loss of our DE’s from last year.
What might help the most with mitigating the loss of Carriker and Moore is the back 7 or 8 of the defense (depending on formation, of course). With four solid, experienced linebackers and a secondary that returns a potential first round pick in Zack Bowman (provided he is healthy) and brings in talented newcomers like Larry Asante, we can only improve on a pass defense that ranked 79th in the country last year. Besides, seeing a ranking of 79th in the country in pass defense last year begs the question: How much did Carriker and Moore really contribute to that aspect of the defense? In fact, looking through the numbers and rankings of teams who had two NFL DE's, there is a wide and seemingly random variance in the quality of the pass defense, leading me to conclude that good DE's don't necessarily help the pass defense as much as many believe.
So now that I have written all of this, I am going to give some predictions. I see Nebraska’s pass defense improving this year despite playing a tough schedule that includes several pass-happy offenses. The depth in our secondary continues to improve, and the addition of Asante and Armando Murillo will hopefully push the rest of the secondary to improve.
I see the run defense staying at about the same level of last year. Losing Carriker and Moore’s combined 33 TFL’s will really hurt but, I think Suh can be better than both of our DT’s were last year and he will help in keeping blockers off of McKeon, Dillard, Ruud, Octavien, and Brandenburgh. Plus, Suh was a force in the opposing backfield when he was on the field last year (had a sack vs. USC) and he should be improved this year. With solid contributions from Steinkuhler and one of the incoming juco DT’s we should be solid. Additionally, our schedule sets up better this year for improved rush defense. Of the major rushing attacks we face this year, we get Texas A&M, USC and Oklahoma State at home and Kansas loses their leading rusher in Jon Cornish.
In closing, the loss of Carriker and Moore is tough and there will be some negative impact on our defense this year. However, the combination of having one solid pass rusher back (Turner), one potentially good pass rusher (Octavien) and a force in the middle (Suh) all back, I think our defense should hold its own this year and will help us to a Big XII Championship.
Another factor that will help our defense is an improved offense. Our explosiveness and consistency should improve and this will give our defense some comfort in being able to play while ahead and not being on the field as much. This of course will have to be explored in more depth in a later post, so check back soon.
Also, feel free to discuss any of my writings in the comment sections. No registration is required for you if you post as “anonymous.”
No comments:
Post a Comment