No Carriker, No Moore- No Hope?

When the St. Louis Rams selected Adam Carriker with the 13th pick of the 2007 NFL Draft two things went through my mind. The first was pride that a Nebraska Cornhusker was drafted in the top half of the first round of the NFL Draft. The second was a pained feeling because I realized we would not have a 1st round draft pick at one of our defensive end positions for the coming season. The pain had subsided for the most part when Jay Moore was taken by the San Francisco 49ers in the 4th round of the draft. At that point I was pushed into an alert state and I resolved to try to figure out what would happen to the Nebraska defense during the 2007 season.

So to try to answer the question of what will happen to the Nebraska defense this season without our two stalwart defensive ends, I looked back at history. Before it happened to Nebraska, Texas, Florida and Georgia last year, a team has lost its starting two defensive ends to the NFL Draft in the same year only 13 times since the 2002 draft.

To try to quantify the impact of the loss of both defensive ends in the same year, I looked at the number of tackles, tackles for loss (TFL), and sacks for each of the defensive ends in their final collegiate year before being drafted. I then researched the replacement defensive ends for the next year and how many tackles, TFL’s and sacks those players accumulated in the next year.

In addition to looking at the individual numbers of those who were drafted and their replacements, I looked at the team defensive rankings. Once I accumulated all of these numbers, I used my limited mathematical prowess to try to figure out the trends.

The following chart shows the comparison between the productions of the DE’s chosen together in the NFL Draft and their replacements.



The table above provides a quick snapshot of the loss of production that accompanies the departure of two NFL-quality defensive ends from a college football team. Multiplying the difference between the production of the NFL DE’s and their replacements by two (there are almost always two DE’s on the field, right?) the production difference is more stark. Over the course of a season, the average accumulated loss of production for the DE’s is 18 tackles, 10 TFL’s and 6 sacks.

Beyond the directly obvious loss of production from the DE position, there is an additional effect on the rest of the defense. As I understand it, solid defensive ends who can put consistent pressure on the quarterback and can hold up to the run are invaluable because they allow the defensive coordinator to call fewer blitzes. With fewer blitzes but the same amount of pressure being applied as if blitzes were being called, the linebackers, safeties and the occasional cornerback who could have been sent on blitzes are able to focus their attention on run support and pass defense. With all of their attention focused on run support and pass defense, the defense is better as a whole. And all of this comes from the presence of two good DE’s.

With all of that being said, I decided to put the above theory to the test by looking at the numbers. With obvious concerns about the small sample size, I still believe that the theoretical stuff about the effect of quality DE’s has been shown to be correct based on the numbers.

For each of the 13 teams that lost their two DE's to the NFL draft since 2002, the following chart shows the average ranking of those teams' defense in the following four categories: rush defense, pass defense, total defense and scoring defense. The second column shows the average rankings of those teams’ defensive units for the next season.



Somewhat surprisingly, the teams with multiple NFL DE’s weren’t ranked as highly in the team defensive stats as might be expected. These higher numbers can be attributed in part to the Purdue team of 2005 that had both of their DE’s drafted and still ranked 50th, 111th, 100th and 75th respectively in the categories listed in the chart. Purdue wasn’t the only team though to rank poorly in the overall defensive categories despite having two NFL draft picks at defensive end. The 2001 BYU team had rankings of 95th, 88th, 102nd, and 85th and the 2005 Syracuse team had rankings of 97, 21, 57 and 67. Take those three teams out of the equation and the average ranking of the defenses with two NFL DE’s drops (or rises…however you want to look at it) to a more expected level.

As most would predict, in the year following the departure of the defensive ends, the average ranking in the four main defensive categories dropped significantly. Though I am not sure that the entire drop can be attributed to the loss of the defensive ends, they have to be a major component.

So what does all of this mean for Nebraska this year? I actually don’t believe that the impact will be as large as some fans, prognosticators and these numbers have predicted. I believe that Barry Turner, who had six sacks as a freshman in 2005 and who has added more bulk to help defend the run and withstand the rigors of full time duty, will have a season where he records at least 8 sacks. Those 8 sacks would represent an improvement over both of Carriker’s 7 sacks and Moore’s 6 sacks from last year and would alleviate some of the production requirements for the other starting defensive end.

Another reason why I don’t think the loss of Carriker and Moore will be drastic is because of the multiple front scheme that we appear to be shifting towards. In the multiple front scheme, less of a premium is placed on having two DE’s who can both rush the passer and defend the run. The defensive formation can be adjusted for the down and distance as well as the opposing team’s style of offense and the time and situation of the game. Part of these adjustments can include having speedy linebackers convert to pass rushing DE’s in certain passing situations. Having speedy players like Octavien (think a lesser version of the Demorrio Williams of 2003) rushing off of the corner will help to hide some of the loss of pressure that most expect based on the loss of our DE’s from last year.

What might help the most with mitigating the loss of Carriker and Moore is the back 7 or 8 of the defense (depending on formation, of course). With four solid, experienced linebackers and a secondary that returns a potential first round pick in Zack Bowman (provided he is healthy) and brings in talented newcomers like Larry Asante, we can only improve on a pass defense that ranked 79th in the country last year. Besides, seeing a ranking of 79th in the country in pass defense last year begs the question: How much did Carriker and Moore really contribute to that aspect of the defense? In fact, looking through the numbers and rankings of teams who had two NFL DE's, there is a wide and seemingly random variance in the quality of the pass defense, leading me to conclude that good DE's don't necessarily help the pass defense as much as many believe.

So now that I have written all of this, I am going to give some predictions. I see Nebraska’s pass defense improving this year despite playing a tough schedule that includes several pass-happy offenses. The depth in our secondary continues to improve, and the addition of Asante and Armando Murillo will hopefully push the rest of the secondary to improve.

I see the run defense staying at about the same level of last year. Losing Carriker and Moore’s combined 33 TFL’s will really hurt but, I think Suh can be better than both of our DT’s were last year and he will help in keeping blockers off of McKeon, Dillard, Ruud, Octavien, and Brandenburgh. Plus, Suh was a force in the opposing backfield when he was on the field last year (had a sack vs. USC) and he should be improved this year. With solid contributions from Steinkuhler and one of the incoming juco DT’s we should be solid. Additionally, our schedule sets up better this year for improved rush defense. Of the major rushing attacks we face this year, we get Texas A&M, USC and Oklahoma State at home and Kansas loses their leading rusher in Jon Cornish.

In closing, the loss of Carriker and Moore is tough and there will be some negative impact on our defense this year. However, the combination of having one solid pass rusher back (Turner), one potentially good pass rusher (Octavien) and a force in the middle (Suh) all back, I think our defense should hold its own this year and will help us to a Big XII Championship.



Another factor that will help our defense is an improved offense. Our explosiveness and consistency should improve and this will give our defense some comfort in being able to play while ahead and not being on the field as much. This of course will have to be explored in more depth in a later post, so check back soon.


Also, feel free to discuss any of my writings in the comment sections. No registration is required for you if you post as “anonymous.”

Honorary Cheerleaders

It seems politicians, scholars, actors, coaches and other notables are constantly receiving honorary degrees from colleges that they have never stepped foot in. Now, I believe it is time for cheerleaders to get in on the action. Here is the first cheerleader who I believe should become an honorary member of the Big Red Cheerleading squad:

12 Links

Throughout the course of the season, I am going to try to provide a weekly (at least) link to a story about each of Nebraska's 12 guaranteed opponents.

Here is the first installment:

1. The Nevada Wolf Pack start practice today.

2. Wake Forest starts practice tonight in search of a couple of linebackers.

3. Five questions for the upcoming fall practice session for USC. Here is to hoping that they don't answer those questions until September 22nd or later.

4. Judging by the scarcity of information on the Internet about the Ball State football team, it would appear that most of our attention should be focused on stopping this man.

5. It looks like Wake Forest isn't the only team on the schedule with linebacker issues.

6. I think Gary Pinkel should should change the saying to "It's ALL About 1969." As in, it has been since 1969 that Missouri has won a conference championship.

7. Oklahoma State does have a good offense.

8. Is it bad when you are looking for the silver lining in a season that hasn't been played yet?

9. Everyone who doesn't live in Austin is lucky that they don't have to read Kirk Bohls every day in the Austin American-Statesman. Anyways, here is his latest:

10. If Mangino brought Mike Rivera's intensity to the exercise room, Mangino might be able to get under 450 lbs.

11. By the time Nebraska plays Kansas State, I think our secondary should be in great shape against this receiver group.

12. Colorado reports...

An Amazing Time of Year

This is my favorite time of year. Fall practice starts tomorrow and these things are what I am thinking about:

Excitement:
• New quarterback with NFL potential.
• Improved secondary with Bowman coming back.
• The best linebacker corps in the Big 12.
• The best group of receivers in Nebraska history.
• Improved offensive line.

Expectations:
• Fourth year for Callahan means even more progress, right?
• The year Marlon Lucky becomes a superstar.
• Sam Keller running the West Coast Offense to perfection.
• Larry Asante blowing up receivers who dare come over the middle.

Questions:
• How do the four new D-Line starters fare?
• Is the offensive line finally back to the “Pipeline” days?
• Do we have a game-breaking tight tend?
• Will the defensive backs show improvement?
• What effect will new Offensive Coordinator Shaw Watson have on the offense?

The Analysis of Marlon Lucky

Marlon Lucky is far from overrated. Out of the 12 running backs rated in the “Rivals Top 100” for the 2005 recruiting class, Marlon Lucky has accumulated the 4th most yards. That alone should show that he is not overrated and is in fact one of the top running backs from his recruiting class. But further analysis shows that Marlon Lucky is better than he first appears.



Marlon Lucky has overcome a lack of opportunities, poor offensive line play, a change in offensive philosophy, and tough opposition to post the numbers that he has accumulated during his two years at Nebraska. I will discuss each of these factors in the order I have listed them.

1. Lack of Opportunities: Lucky has only 184 rush attempts for the Cornhuskers. To put that into perspective, James Davis, the Clemson running back who has accumulated the most yardage since 2005, had 203 rush attempts last year alone. Jonathon Stewart, who in 2005 was the highest rated running back in the nation, had 183 rush attempts last year for Oregon. The Longhorn, Jamaal Charles, has a combined total from his first two years in college of 275 carries.

There are a couple of reasons why Lucky hasn’t had the amount of touches that the other running backs on this list have had. First of all, the two running backs that he has played behind have both gone onto play in the NFL. Cory Ross, who was the starter during the 2005 season, was a two year starter for Nebraska and a major contributor for three years. Ross is now playing in the NFL for the Baltimore Ravens. The starter for Nebraska at running back for the 2006 season was Brandon Jackson who was a 3rd round pick of the Green Bay Packers during this past draft. Jackson was a tough runner and good blocker and is the favorite to start for the Green Bay Packers this season. That Marlon Lucky was forced to play behind two future NFL running backs was the main reason that he did not get to carry the ball as many times as the other running backs to whom he is being compared.

Another reason that Lucky wasn’t able to get more carries was his deficiency as a pass blocker. In the West Coast offense, a premium is placed on running backs being able to pick up blitzing linebackers and safeties and chipping at defensive ends rushing off of the edge. When Lucky first got to Nebraska he had never been forced to do any of this and he struggled at it. He has improved over the past two years to a point where the coaches seem to be comfortable with having Lucky on the field on an every down basis.

Taking these factors into account and looking at his carry totals, it is apparent that what Marlon Lucky has suffered from is not a combination of over-hype and underproduction, but rather a lack of opportunity.



2. Poor Line Play: The Nebraska offensive line has sucked for the past two years, especially the 2005 season. The terrible offensive line play is illustrated by the awful 2005 team yards per carry average of 2.7 and the 38 sacks given up in 2005 alone. During 2005, Marlon Lucky averaged only 3 yards per carry, which nobody could argue was good. However, 3 yards per carry doesn’t look quite as bad when the starter and future Baltimore Raven Cory Ross averaged only 3.9 yards per carry.

On the other hand, Jamaal Charles was fortunate to play behind a 2005 offensive line at Texas that had an average Rivals star ranking of 3.9. The 3.9 average star ranking was the highest Offensive Line ranking that any of the 2005 running backs ran behind. That offensive line allowed Charles to average 7.4 yards per carry and the rest of the Longhorn team to average 5.7 yards per carry. 5.7 yards per carry is a huge number for a team and it allowed the Longhorns to finish second in the nation in rushing yards per game during 2005 behind the one-dimensional rushing attack of Navy.



3. Change in Offensive Philosophy: Bill Callahan took over the Nebraska Cornhuskers before the 2004 season and immediately began to change the entire culture of Nebraska football. Gone were the days of the Power-I formation and the marathon drives that took 10 minutes to move the ball 70 yards toward the opposing team’s end zone. Those days were replaced by Callahan’s West Coast offense that led the Raiders to an appearance in the Super Bowl during the 2002 season. The transition was rough and Marlon Lucky was a part of that transition.

Unlike Marlon Lucky, the rest of the running backs who were rated in the top 100 players in the nation by Rivals.com did not have to be part of a restructuring process. Those running backs were fortunate to join football teams that had been running the same system with many of the same coaches for an extended period of time.

The benefit for players like Jamaal Charles, Jonathon Stewart and James Davis who joined Mack Brown’s, Mike Bellotti’s, and Tommy Bowden’s respective teams was that each of those coaches had been coaching at their school for at least eight years. This allowed the coaches to have a system in place that almost ran itself. The returning players in these programs knew what was expected of them and they were able to pass this knowledge along to the incoming freshmen. This process of handing down knowledge and expectations made the transition from high school phenom to college freshmen easier for those freshmen running backs not named Marlon Lucky.

Another benefit of joining a program with an established head coach and offensive system was the level of sophistication that that system was able to achieve. Whereas Bill Callahan was working to introduce his entire team to the foreign West Coast Offense, coaches like Mack Brown, Mike Bellotti and Tommy Bowden were able to fine-tune their respective offensive systems. And in college football, where parity has reigned supreme over the past decade, small, marginal gains in efficiency and knowledge are instrumental to developing an offensive system that will work effectively over the course of the season. Those small and marginal gains were tough to achieve for the Nebraska program who was trying to implement an entirely new system, and this negatively affected the first two years of Marlon Lucky’s career.

4. Tough Opposition: This section is not meant to start an argument about which conference is the best college football conference in the land. I am just analyzing the competition that each of the running backs has faced during their two years in college football. Because we are talking about running backs, the measure of the quality of the defense faced that I will use is Rushing Yards Against.

In the following chart, I have placed each of the running backs that I am comparing along with the average quality of rush defense they faced during the 2005 and 2006 seasons. The fourth column is the average quality of rush defense they have faced over their entire collegiate careers.



As you can see, the quality of rush defense that Marlon Lucky has faced is equaled only by Jonathon Stewart. On the flipside, James Davis, who at first glance seems to be the best running back from the 2005 recruiting class because of the amount of yards he has gained during his career, has benefited from playing against lackluster defenses who struggle to stop the run. Combine that and the fact that he has the most carries of any of the five top running backs and you can see why he has the most yards of any of the top running backs as ranked by Rivals.com.

After taking into account all of the factors that I have discussed, it should be apparent that Marlon Lucky is far from overrated. The reasons his numbers aren’t as eye-popping as some of the other big name backs from the 2005 recruiting class have been detailed. He has been forced to deal with poor line play in front of him, a lack of running opportunities, a change in offensive philosophy and tough opposing defenses and through all of this he has still managed to accumulate the fourth highest yardage total of any of the running backs whom we have discussed.

Looking forward to the 2007 season, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Lucky’s chances for a breakout year. First of all, Lucky is entering fall camp as the number one running back on the depth chart for the first time in his career. Secondly, the Nebraska offensive line is returning some veteran talent while infusing some new and young talent at the same time. Reports and observations from spring practice had the Husker O-Line showing great gains in both the overall talent level and the group cohesiveness from the previous two years. Thirdly, Lucky showed marked and tangible improvement between his freshmen and sophomore campaigns. His yards per carry increased from 3 his freshmen year to 5.2 his sophomore year. While expecting another jump of 2.2 yards per carry is unrealistic, it is fair to believe that the average will increase again this year with his added experience and a better O-Line blocking for him. Also, now that he is almost assuredly going to be the starting running back, his touches will increase and that will significantly increase the number of yards he rushes for this year.

In conclusion, those who say Marlon Lucky is overrated and a disappointment should at least wait until the end of this year to make that statement. This is his best chance for the type of season that was expected of him coming out of North Hollywood High School in Los Angeles, and there are plenty of reasons to expect that this will be the year when lives up to the lofty expectation that have been placed upon his shoulders.